AGI Lecture - Robert B. Koopman - Challenges to the Trade System: The Potential Quantitative Impact of Trends on Global Trade Policy

In this lecture, Robert B. Koopman examines the challenges to the post-war trade system from a policy perspective. Using a dynamic quantitative trade model, he will examine the potential implications of three trends on trade policy. The first trend is related to the recent developments in the global policy environment resulting in trade conflicts. Second is the continued regional integration among some countries and the slow-down of integration in some others. Third is the breakdown in global trade cooperation.

The analysis is done on a baseline that accounts for new technologies such as digitalization, robotization and artificial intelligence. Policy scenarios that show the welfare effect, the trade effect and the effect on the organization of trade in value chains in the next 20 years will be elaborated.  The potential implications of Industry 4.0 on future integration of the trade of services will also be discussed.