Emanuel Ornelas, AGI Senior Fellow, co-authored an article in VoxEU Columns, Centre for Economic Policy Research, demonstrating that the US-China trade war, while failing to create jobs in the US or China, led to job creation in Brazil.
Specifically, regions of Brazil that specialized in industries targeted by China's retaliatory tariffs on US goods saw an increase in formal employment and wage bills between 2017 and 2021. This is because China turned to Brazil as an alternative supplier when tariffs were imposed on US products, leading to trade diversion. The research highlights the unintended consequences of trade wars, creating both risks and opportunities for third-party countries, urging policymakers to be aware of these spillovers.
Read the full article here.
Senior Fellow, Asia Global Institute
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