08:00 倫敦 | 17:00 東京 | 19:00 悉尼
Violence Risk and Contract Choice: Evidence from Rural Banditry in northeastern China during the 1930s
How risk affects contract choice has always been a major concern of agricultural contract theory. The majority of contemporary studies instead focuses more on the effects of natural disaster risk, as opposed to that of violence risk. Professor Nan Li of Fudan University and his co-author use the Manchurian Rural Survey household datasets collected in the 1930s to examine how the bandits in northeastern China affected farmers’ decisions on the choice of agricultural tenancy contracts. Their findings show that apart from the risk of natural disasters, the additional violence risk from banditry and other criminal activities should also be considered as an important determinant of farmers' contractual choices. Farmers at high-risk conditions opted for sharecropping, i.e., a low-powered incentive tenancy agreement, to achieve risk diversification. The proportion of sharecropping went up with the violence risk, making a corresponding reduction in agricultural productivity. This result remains robust after having controlled for the influence of a series of variables, such as tenant and landlord preferences under risk, regional characteristics, and so on. In this Quantitative History Webinar, Professor Nan Li will explain how the study of violence risk provides empirical evidence that enriches and extends the theory of risk sharing in tenancy contracts, presenting a new micro-mechanism for understanding the impacts of violence on economic performance.
Live on Zoom on March 4, 2021
16:00 Hong Kong/Beijing/Singapore
08:00 London | 17:00 Tokyo | 19:00 Sydney
Photo credit: The Autumn, The actual view in Manchuria, Unknown author, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
量化歷史網上講座系列(Quantitative History Webinar Series)由香港大學陳志武教授和馬馳騁博士聯合發起並舉辦，旨在介紹前沿量化歷史研究成果、促進同仁交流，推廣量化方法在歷史研究中的應用。本系列講座由國際量化歷史學會、香港大學經管學院和亞洲環球研究所全力支持和承辦。
About the Quantitative History Webinar Series
The Quantitative History Webinar Series, convened by Professor Zhiwu Chen and Dr. Chicheng Ma of The University of Hong Kong (HKU), aims to provide researchers, teachers and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The Series is co-organized by the International Society for Quantitative History, HKU Business School, and the Asia Global Institute (AGI).
Professor Zhiwu Chen (陳志武教授)
Dr. Chicheng Ma (馬馳騁博士)
To return to the Series page, click here.