Book launch: Towards a Future for BRICS+

The global economy is undergoing profound transformation amid geopolitical tensions. Heiwai Tang opened the discussion by reflecting on the BRICs concept, initially framed by Jim O’Neill through the Solow growth model as an alignment of large emerging economies with high growth potential. Since then, BRICS has grown into a bloc accounting for around 40% of global GDP with strong trade linkages, though China remains the dominant export partner. 

Brian Wong emphasized we are in a world order transition. The post US-China Cold War system is unraveling, and a new world order remains undefined. Bold policy shifts away from US dollar dominance and evolving geopolitical blocs signal changing financial architecture. BRICS functions more as a pragmatic coalition driven by opportunity and a shared desire to reduce dependency on the US rather than as a coherent bloc. However, significant challenges remain – internal political divides, governance issues, and limited commitment weaken cohesion of BRICS. The potential expansion of the group would further amplify its heterogeneity, making coherence and consensus harder to achieve. Wong also highlighted Hong Kong’s potential role as a pragmatic hub navigating beyond a US-China binary. 

On the economic front, BRICS countries still struggle to diversify away from US consumption. Chinese manufacturers remain heavily dependent on American demand as they have higher profit margins, while structural risks in China’s high savings rate and slow shift toward self-sufficient consumption constrain alternatives. Russia’s comparative advantage in energy provides some integration, but broader alignment on trade and sustainability issues is still limited. The discussion then returned to the larger question: the future of BRICS in a unipolar yet declining US-led world. China is rising but has not overtaken the US in all dimensions. The bloc’s comparative advantage lies in innovation, supply chain repositioning, and emerging consumption markets. Yet without stronger coherence and shared ideology, the risk of fragmentation—even collapse—remains.

Economically, BRICS countries still rely heavily on US consumption. Chinese manufacturers benefit from higher profit margins on American demand but face structural risks from high savings and slow shifts to self-sufficient consumption. Russia’s energy advantage offers some trade integration, yet broader alignment on trade and sustainability is limited. The bloc’s future in a unipolar yet declining US-led world hinges on innovation, supply chain repositioning, and growing consumption markets. Without stronger cohesion and shared ideology, fragmentation risks persist. 

Geopolitically, Central Asia countries like Kazakhstan maintain loose BRICS ties but may pivot westward when opportunities arise. India uniquely balances the east and west, capturing supply chains amid disturbances while pursuing manufacturing ambitions and diplomatic hedging. Latin America’s emerging political blocs also face challenges sustaining unity. 

Looking ahead, skepticism remains over the development of a common BRICS currency due to diverse political priorities. While concepts such as currency baskets pegged to stable currencies like the Hong Kong dollar and Japanese yen have been proposed, regional platforms and trade negotiations driven more by economic than political considerations appear to be the more viable path forward.