The International Monetary Fund believes that “after a lackluster outturn in 2016, (global) economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018, especially in emerging market and developing economies. However, there is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes around the projections, given uncertainty surrounding the policy stance of the incoming U.S. administration and its global ramifications.”
In the April Update to its 2017 outlook, the IMF looks at efforts by emerging markets and developing economies to sustain growth in a less supportive environment, and examines the drivers of declining labor share of income.
In its new Development Outlook, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) noted that the region continued to do well even if major industrial economies remained weak. The bank forecasted the region’s economy to expand by 5.7 per cent in 2017 – just slightly under the 5.8 per cent growth seen in 2016.
Further, the ADB noted that while decades of growth propelled developing Asia from a low-income region to middle income one, sustaining growth to further power the transition from middle income to high income will depend on improvements to productivity. It noted that “innovation, human capital, and infrastructure are the three pillars of productivity growth… (and) supportive institutions and policies, underpinned by macroeconomic stability, can strengthen all three pillars.”
The ADB said it was confident that “Asia’s dynamic track record suggests that attaining high income status, while challenging, is achievable.”
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