1050x300-AS-XG-Facing Down Secular Stagnation in China

Facing Down Secular Stagnation in China

Author(s): Andrew Sheng, Geng Xiao

Date: Aug 21, 2015

Theme(s): China, Finance & Macroeconomics

Publications: Opinions & Speeches

Distinguished Fellow Andrew Sheng and HKU Professor Xiao Geng say now is the time to press ahead with structural reform.

Secular stagnation is looming worldwide, and China is no exception. Globally, the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus following the 2008 financial crisis has caused debt, equity, and property prices to peak, even as trade and investment decline; all of this has depressed demand, economic growth, and inflation. For China, this is complicating official efforts to boost the role of market forces in shaping economic outcomes. Will the authorities’ latest move – devaluation of the renminbi – be enough to turn the tide?

To be sure, China’s leaders have shown a commitment to ceding some control over the economy, signaling to businesses that they must adjust to a “new normal” of slower output gains as the country pursues structural reforms aimed at establishing a more sustainable growth model. But rising risk – reflected in the recent plunge in China’s stock market – has compelled the government to step in to limit the fallout. And, with policy uncertainty and market volatility driving Chinese businesses to sit on, rather than invest, large cash balances, the pressure of secular stagnation is growing more severe.

China’s situation, while far from dire, is certainly challenging. Though real annual GDP growth seems to have stabilized at around 7 per cent, almost all key economic indicators – such as nominal GDP, fixed-asset investment, floor space under construction, nominal retail sales, auto sales, electricity output, railway cargo, and iron ore imports – are well below their four-year growth average.

 

This article first appeared in Project Syndicate on August 17, 2015.

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Asia Global Institute’s editorial policy.